Global Business Professionals in the Developing World Believe that China and India will Surpass the U.S. as the World’s Centers of Tech Innovation by 2035

Bloomberg New Economy Forum survey of 2,000 business professionals in 20 markets reveals optimism by respondents for the role that technology will play in the economy; 39 percent of global respondents agree that Beijing will be the world’s top tech city by 2035

 

July 23, 2019 –Bloomberg today released findings of its New Economy global survey, which gathered the views of 2,000 business professionals in 20 markets on what the future will hold as the balance of global power shifts towards new economies. Faced with a series of predictions about the world in 2035, the survey revealed sentiment from business professionals from emerging and developed economies on a range of issues including the role of technology, urbanization and climate change.

Overall, data shows that emerging country business professionals are more optimistic than developed markets about change, and have markedly higher expectations for the role that technology will play in the economy, business and daily life in the decades to come.

“It is noteworthy that emerging economies are more optimistic than developed markets about the power of technology to shape a better world by the year 2035,” said Andrew Browne, editorial director of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. “Developing countries in general see technology more as an opportunity while the developed world has a greater sense of technology as a threat.”

Among the key takeaways from the survey: 

  • Globally, 54 percent of respondents strongly agree or agree that by 2035, China and India will have surpassed the U.S. as the world’s centers of tech innovation. A substantial percentage (49 percent) of respondents in developed markets including U.S. respondents strongly agreed or agreed with the prediction that China and India will eclipse the U.S. in technology. Even more (59 percent) respondents in emerging markets are betting that China and Indian will dominate the sector by 2035. Among the highest were South Africa (73 percent strongly agree or agree), Egypt (69 percent strongly agree or agree) and Saudi Arabia (67 percent strongly agree or agree). Chinese respondents were more conservative about the prospect of China and India surpassing the U.S. in technology, with just 40 percent strongly agreeing or agreeing.39 percent of global respondents believe that Beijing will be the world’s top tech city by 2035, with more respondents (45 percent) in emerging markets strongly agreeing and agreeing than in developed markets (31 percent). 
  • There is strong global consensus that if there is another world war, then it is likely to be a cyber war. Globally, 68 percent of respondents strongly agree or agree with this prediction. There is more fear of this from emerging countries (72 percent strongly agree or agree) than from developed countries (where 61 percent strongly agree or agree), but concern runs high around the world. 
  • Respondents in Asia believe self-driving cars will be more common than individually owned automobiles in 2035. While respondents in China (70 percent), Vietnam (69 percent) and India (65 percent) strongly agree or agree that self-driving cars will dominate the automobile market, there is disagreement on this point in Western countries with strong automotive industries, including the United Kingdom (38 percent strongly disagree or disagree), United States (36 percent strongly disagree or disagree) and Germany (35 percent strongly disagree or disagree).
  • The majority of business professionals across the world agree that by 2035, we will be reaching the point of no return on climate change. 58 percent globally strongly agree or agree, with sentiment running strongest in developed economies such as United Kingdom (64 percent), France (63 percent) and Germany (59 percent).52 percent of global business professionals also agree that rising sea levels will have already wiped the first low-lying country off the map by 2035.
  • Around the world, there is a building consensus that cash is on the way out — Globally, 52 percent of respondents strongly agree or agree that the G-10 will no longer use cash as a medium of exchange in 2035. Emerging countries are slightly more likely (54 percent strongly agree or agree) to predict this change than the developed countries (48 percent strongly agree or agree).
  • Despite fears that AI will destroy manual jobs, a majority around the world say lifelong learning can mitigate the threat – That sentiment is especially strong in the emerging economies, where 72 percent strongly agreed or agreed that lifelong learning, often delivered via mobile technology, will be a successful method of countering challenges to the job markets proposed by AI.

Tom Orlik, Bloomberg’s Chief Economist said: “What’s palpable on the streets of Beijing and New Delhi is also evident in the results of the survey – professionals in the new economies are clear sighted on the shift in the center of global economic gravity. As they move to seize the opportunities represented by new markets and new technologies, the flow of talent and capital will accelerate the new economies’ rise.”

The 2019 New Economy Forum will be held in Beijing on November 20-22 on the shores of Yanqi Lake. Nearly 500 of the world’s most influential business executives, technology innovators, government officials, experts and academics from over 60 countries and regions will gather in Beijing to propose solutions to disruptions from the shift to the new economy.

For additional details about the Bloomberg New Economy Forum visit neweconomyforum.com. To join the conversation and stay up-to-date on the forum, follow us on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn, WeChat, and Weibo using #NewEconForum.

 

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Contacts for Bloomberg:

Americas:

Caitlin O’Neill

+1-646-324-5909

coneill93@bloomberg.net

 

China:

Stella Guo

+86-10-66497247

Sguo131@bloomberg.net

 

APAC:

Belina Tan

+65-62313637

belina.tan@bloomberg.net

 

EMEA:

Natalie Harland

+44-20-35258820

nharland@bloomberg.net

 

LatAm:

Pam Snook

+1-212-617-7652

pamsnook@bloomberg.net

 

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Research Methodology

The online survey was conducted for Bloomberg by Profiles Division, Kantar. Survey data was collected from March 18-26, 2019 among a sample of 2,000 business professionals in 20 markets on their views of what the future (specifically, 2035) will likely hold. This involved ascertaining their level of agreement or disagreement to a range of predictions about the world in 2035. The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/- 2.2 at the 95% confidence level based on total N=2000 sample size.

Footnotes:

  1. Working professionals aged 30 years old to 65 years old, and in full-time employment

 

2. Countries polled:

  1. Argentina 2
  2. Brazil 2
  3. China 2
  4. Egypt 2
  5. France 1
  6. Germany 1
  7. India 2
  8. Indonesia 2
  9. Japan 1
  10. Malaysia 2
  11. Nigeria 2
  12. Saudi Arabia 2
  13. Singapore 1
  14. South Africa 2
  15. South Korea 1
  16. Spain 1
  17. United Arab Emirates 1
  18. United Kingdom 1
  19. United States 1
  20. Vietnam 2

1 Denoted as “developed market” for the purpose of survey

2 Denoted as “emerging market” for the purpose of survey